The Donald Trump administration raised the average U.S. import tariff to 19.5%, the highest level since 1933. According to a report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the full impact of these tariffs on the global economy has not yet been felt, but in the future, they may slow the growth of investment and trade.
According to OECD forecasts, global economic growth in 2025 will be 3.2% compared to 3.3% last year. The U.S. economy will slow to 1.8%, and China’s to 4.9%, although fiscal support and activity in artificial intelligence are mitigating the effects of the tariffs. The European Union is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2025, Japan by 1.1%, and the United Kingdom by 1.4%.
Experts warn that a further increase in trade barriers or prolonged political uncertainty could raise production costs, reduce investment, and slow consumption. Despite the stockpiles businesses accumulated before the introduction of the tariffs, the full effect of the tariff shock has yet to be felt by the global economy.
The tariffs have already affected international trade: Japan’s exports to the U.S. have decreased by almost 14% year-on-year, and U.S. car manufacturers have faced billions in additional costs. China, by increasing shipments to India, Africa, and Southeast Asia, has achieved a record trade surplus but is facing pressure on product prices.
The OECD notes that the U.S. tariff policy could have long-term consequences for global markets and requires careful monitoring by partner countries.
