The global incidence of cancer has doubled over the last 30 years and continues to climb: experts anticipate an additional 60% growth in the coming decades.
The number of cancer cases worldwide is set to increase by over 60% in the next 25 years, experts warn. According to research from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, published in The Lancet, the number of annually diagnosed cases could reach 30.5 million by 2050, with deaths hitting 18.6 million.
Scientists note that from 1990 to 2023, the global incidence of cancer more than doubled—rising from 9 million to 18.5 million cases. Over the same period, mortality grew from 6 million to 10.4 million. Despite this, the overall risk of dying from oncological diseases has decreased: the age-standardized mortality rate has fallen, although primarily in developed nations. Incidence and mortality continue to rise in low- and middle-income countries.
Researchers identify the main risk factors as smoking (accounting for one in five cancer deaths), air pollution, alcohol consumption, unhealthy diet, and high blood sugar levels.
The trend in the US is more favorable: cancer incidence and mortality rates have declined in recent decades, yet significant regional disparities persist. For instance, Maine recorded about 650 cases per 100,000 people in 2021—one of the highest rates in the country.
The scientists stress that a comprehensive approach is necessary to combat the growing burden of cancer, including prevention, screening, timely treatment, palliative care, and addressing risk factors. Otherwise, the UN goal of reducing premature mortality from non-communicable diseases, including cancer, by one-third by 2030 will remain unattainable.
