A new study by European astrophysicists suggests that if extraterrestrial civilizations exist, they are extremely rare and are likely to be much older and more technologically advanced than humankind.
The research, led by Manuel Scherf of the Space Research Institute at the Austrian Academy of Sciences, focused on the conditions required for life to evolve into a technological civilization. The analysis showed that a key factor is the duration of a biosphere’s existence, which depends on the composition of the planet’s atmosphere.
The scientists calculated that for at least one technological civilization to emerge in the Milky Way, biological life must persist for a minimum of 280,000 years. For ten civilizations to exist simultaneously, their average lifespan must exceed 10 million years—thousands of times longer than humanity’s current “technological age.”
According to the calculations, the nearest civilization could be located approximately 33,000 light-years from Earth, on the other side of the galaxy, which virtually rules out the possibility of direct contact.
Nevertheless, the researchers emphasize the importance of continuing the search. According to Scherf, even negative results help refine models, and the potential discovery of another civilization would be the greatest scientific breakthrough in history.
