Japan sets grim record with deaths outpacing births in 2024

Japan’s population declined by over 900,000 in 2024, marking the largest annual drop on record and the sixteenth consecutive year of population decline.

The number of births fell to 686,061 — the lowest since records began in 1899 and around 5–5.7% lower than the previous year. The average fertility rate dropped to a record low of 1.15 children per woman, far below the replacement rate of 2.1 needed to maintain population size.

Meanwhile, the number of deaths reached a record high of 1.6 million in 2024, nearly double the number of births. This imbalance is the key driver of Japan’s rapid demographic contraction.

Japan’s current population stands at approximately 124 million and is projected to fall to around 87 million by 2070, with 40% of the population expected to be over the age of 65.

The government has described the situation as a ‘quiet emergency’ and has launched initiatives to encourage childbearing, including expanded child allowances, free secondary education, and full salary compensation during parental leave. In Tokyo, a four-day workweek for public employees is being introduced alongside flexible work schedules and enhanced support for young families.

However, many of these policies target already-married couples and fail to address deeper social concerns such as job insecurity, high living costs, rigid corporate culture, and pressure on women to adopt their husband’s surname after marriage.

Japan’s demographic imbalance is placing growing strain on its economy, as a shrinking workforce struggles to support a rapidly aging population. Economists warn of long-term consequences including debt crises and weakened national security.