A sweeping new analysis by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), widely reported by The Times, finds that 2024 marked the most conflict-intensive year since World War II. The year saw 61 active state-based armed conflicts, of which 11 escalated to full-scale wars—each resulting in over 1,000 battle-related deaths. This surge places 2024 at the top of a disturbing trend, with the most conflict-heavy years all occurring since 2019.
Nearly 160,000 people were killed in organized violence last year, marking the fifth-highest annual death toll since 1989. The war in Ukraine remained the deadliest, accounting for approximately 76,000 fatalities in 2024, while conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, Ethiopia, and Nigeria contributed significantly to the global total.
A particularly alarming element of modern warfare highlighted in the report is the intentional targeting of civilians. In Gaza, only 2% of fatalities were combatants, while 48% were civilians—indicating deliberate civilian targeting. Additionally, 13,900 civilians died in targeted attacks worldwide, a dramatic increase of 31% year-over-year. The Islamic State was responsible for around 3,800 of these deaths, primarily in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The UCDP also noted that interstate conflicts surged, reaching the highest level since 1987, with an accompanying rise in state-sponsored proxy wars. This reflects an increasingly complex global security landscape where state and non-state actors intertwine.
Trends Over Recent Years
- 2019–2024: Marked increase in active conflicts (56 in 2022; 59 in 2023; 61 in 2024).
- Violence measured: 2024 was the fourth-most deadly year since the Rwandan genocide in 1994.
Key Conflict Zones in 2024 Include
- Russia–Ukraine war (≈76,000 battle deaths).
- Gaza and Lebanon (≈26,000 deaths, mostly civilians).
- Conflicts in Ethiopia, Niger, Burkina Faso, Myanmar, Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Nigeria (against ISIS).
While the total number of deaths in 2024 was slightly below that of the exceptionally violent years of 2022 and 1994, the sheer number of active conflicts is unprecedented in the post-WWII era.
Humanitarian Toll and Civilian Targeting
UCDP analysts caution that civilians are becoming primary targets in modern warfare. In Gaza, nearly half of the fatalities were civilians, while Islamist militant violence deliberately claimed thousands of civilian lives in Africa.
Broader Implications
The proliferation of interstate and proxy conflicts, along with rising violence against civilians, points to a deteriorating global security environment. Shawn Davies, senior UCDP analyst, emphasized that “we see more wars and more conflicts than previously”.
