The fifth round of nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran concluded this week in Rome with modest movement but persistent deadlock. The discussions, mediated by Oman and monitored by European Union officials, aimed to rebuild a framework that would restrict Iran’s nuclear development in exchange for phased sanctions relief. Despite some agreement on monitoring mechanisms, core disagreements remain over uranium enrichment thresholds and the timeline for lifting U.S. sanctions.
Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi confirmed that both delegations “showed a willingness to continue,” but stated that “the political decisions necessary to reach a framework have not yet been made.”
Tehran continues to enrich uranium at levels exceeding 60%, far beyond the 3.67% limit set in the original 2015 JCPOA. U.S. negotiators, led by Special Envoy Brian Hook under Secretary of State Marco Rubio, insist that Iran must return to pre-2018 enrichment levels and dismantle its advanced centrifuges.
Iran, in turn, is demanding the immediate lifting of oil and banking sanctions and legally binding guarantees that Washington will not unilaterally withdraw from any future agreement—as President Trump did in 2018.
Israel Signals Escalation if Talks Collapse
As talks stalled, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz issued a stern warning, stating that Israel “will not wait for a signature in Rome while uranium is spinning in Natanz.” Speaking at a defense forum in Herzliya, Katz confirmed that Israel has finalized military options for preemptive strikes should Iran reach what he called a “point of no return.”
This marks a significant escalation in rhetoric from Jerusalem, which has long maintained its right to act unilaterally against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Katz also stated that Israel is in close coordination with the United States and regional allies “to prepare for all contingencies.”
Washington Walks Diplomatic Tightrope
Speaking from Brussels, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated that diplomacy remains the Trump administration’s preferred path but underscored that “we cannot afford to wait endlessly while Iran moves closer to weaponization.”
Rubio also stated that any agreement must “stand up to regional reality,” signaling a shift toward a more conditional and security-oriented framework.
Iran responded by accusing both the U.S. and Israel of “sabotaging progress through threats and pressure,” and emphasized that its nuclear program remains peaceful in intent. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian condemned “nuclear hypocrisy,” pointing to Israel’s undeclared arsenal.
Global Stakes and What Comes Next
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell described the talks as “sensitive, but not hopeless.” Moscow and Beijing, while largely silent in public, are reportedly pressuring Tehran to avoid escalation, fearing regional destabilization and economic fallout.
The next round of discussions is expected in early June, likely in Muscat. Whether diplomacy can prevail remains uncertain, but the shadow of military confrontation is now more pronounced than at any point since 2020.
